Until recently, many observers believed China would lead the world in EV development, given the sheer size of its market and generous government subsidies.

In 2008, McKinsey & Co. predicted EVs would generate as much as 30 percent of China's passenger vehicle sales by 2030. A year later, A.T. Kearny projected that electric cars would grab as much as 40 percent of China's auto market by 2020.

But those expectations are waning. This month, J.D. Power forecast that electric cars would account for only 2 percent of total light vehicle sales by 2020.

If J.D. Power is correct, China would still be the world's second largest EV market, with annual sales of 333,000 units. But electric cars would be a niche - not a mass market.

What do the Chinese themselves think of the domestic EV market?

Last June, domestic auto executives were excited about prospects for a huge domestic EV market that would help Chinese automakers leapfrog international rivals.

They were encouraged by the government's announcement that it would offer a 50,000-yuan ($7,300) sales subsidy for each plug-in hybrid vehicle, and a 60,000 yuan subsidy for electric vehicles in five major cities.

But Chinese executives now realize that it is not so easy to leapfrog foreign competition. Dong Yang, deputy chairman of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, has warned that Chinese companies are way behind international companies in battery technology.

Dong's reminder is timely. Many Chinese companies claim they have developed EV products, but their technologies are untested. 

Moreover, some companies have made extravagant claims about the range and performance of their EVs.

For example, engineers that I have met have expressed skepticism about the safety of BYD battery technology and the range that Chery has claimed for its EV.

By contrast, General Motors and Nissan Motor Co. allowed journalists to test-drive the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf before they went on sale.

I think this explains why some technocrats here in China say the government should allow low-speed EVs on China's roads. They know that Chinese companies lag far behind international companies in EV development, so they want to give Chinese automakers the first-mover advantage in their home market.

There are other hurdles ahead of China's nascent EV market as well. This week, Reuters reported that Nissan is not ready to introduce its Leaf electric car in China until the government drafts proper national standards for charging facilities.

Sober realism about China's EV market may leave a bitter taste, but it is better than blind optimism. With a dose of realism, perhaps Chinese EV makers will work harder while government officials draft more clear-headed industrial policies.