Analysts: Bailout would send GM stock even lower

'Without government assistance, we believe that GM's collapse would be inevitable, and that it would precipitate systemic risk that would be difficult to overcome for automakers, suppliers, retailers, and sectors of the U.S. economy,' Lache wrote. 'As part of GM's restructuring, we are also convinced that a large number of stakeholders who are senior to GM's equity will have to settle for pennies on the dollar.' GM needs $10 billion in government loans, Lache wrote, to survive until 2010. GM said Friday it lost $2.5 billion in the third quarter, while burning through $6.9 billion in cash. The automaker warned it might not have enough cash to meet minimum funding requirements by the second quarter of 2009. Brian Johnson, an auto analyst at Barclay Capital, put a price target of $1 a share on GM. 'We estimate that GM will end 2008 with just $13.3 bil of gross cash, and expect GM to fall below its $11-14 bil minimum cash needs in 1Q09,' Johnson wrote. 'Of the four broad options for government assistance for GM, we believe that political pressure to protect taxpayers may lead to a solution similar to the 1979 Chrysler bailout, which was accompanied by concessions from debt holders, labor, suppliers and management.' But as Johnson noted, shareholders could end up suffering as they did in the Chrysler bailout. 'In any scenario, we see little value for current equity. In the Chrysler-like approach, potentially 98 percent of the recapitalized company's equity would be transferred to the UAW VEBA, existing GM debt holders and the government.' GM must pay $7 billion into a UAW-run health care trust fund in 2010 under a labor deal reached last year. On Thursday, GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner, along with the CEOs of Chrysler LLC and Ford Motor Co. and the president of the United Auto Workers, met with congressional leaders seeking $25 billion in 'bridge financing' to help the companies survive until 2010 as they face the prospects of another dismal year of auto sales in 2009 -- after 2008 looks to be the worst year for the auto industry in more than 15 years. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid in a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Saturday said there would have to be 'taxpayer protections' in exchange for more aid -- including the government getting equity in the automakers, along with limits on executive compensation and bonuses. Saving GM is becoming a global war cry. Today Joint General Secretary Tony Woodley of United, the U.K.'s largest union, urged British Business Secretary Peter Mandelson to use his international expertise for 'global action to save the motor industry from crisis and above all to stave off bankruptcy at General Motors.' 'General Motors is running out of money as a result of the crisis in the USA,' Woodley said, 'and British workers employed by Vauxhall will be among the victims.' The union wants Mandelson to work with President-elect Barack Obama as well as leaders in Europe on a 'co-ordinated global package to get the motor industry out of the crisis caused by the reckless bankers.' With Monday's steep selloff, GM's market capitalization fell to below $2 billion for the first time in more than 60 years. More than 40 million shares traded hands in the first 90 minutes of trading -- far above the average daily volume of 28 million shares. Before today's sharp drop, GM's lowest share price of the year was $4 -- and that was the lowest level the Detroit automaker hit since 1949. GM announced Friday would improve its cash position by $5 billion by the end of 2009 by cutting capital spending, cutting salaried spending by 30 percent, reducing promotions and further cutting production. About 3,600 hourly workers will be laid off indefinitely in early 2009 as GM slows production at 10 of its assembly plants -- following the company announcement last month it was laying off 1,600 workers. GM, which cut about 5,100 salaried workers from its payroll by Nov. 1, is cutting another 2,000 salaried workers. Ford Motor Co. said it used $7.7 billion in cash in the third-quarter but it is in a better position because it borrowed more money. Ford's stock fell $0.07 a share, or 3.5 percent, in early trading to $1.99 a share.