This study analyzes the world tire and rubber industries. In the case of both rubber and tires, the word ¡°consumption¡± is used synonymously with ¡°demand,¡± and is equivalent to production less exports plus imports. Rubber consumption, net imports and production are provided in metric tons for the historical years 1996, 2001 and 2006, with forecasts provided for 2011 and 2016.

 

Included in the synthetic rubber segment are copolymers of styrene and butadiene (styrenebutadiene rubber, or SBR); polymers of butadiene (polybutadiene, or BR); polymers of isoprene (polyisoprene, or IR); copolymers of ethylene and propylene (ethylene-propylene rubber, or EP/EPDM); copolymers of isobutylene and isoprene (butyl rubber, or IIR); copolymers of acrylonitrile and butadiene (nitrile rubber, or NBR); and polymers of

chloroprene (polychloroprene, or CR -- also known as neoprene); as well as minor quantities of specialty elastomers (primarily silicone, acrylic and fluorinated elastomers).

 

Data include only thermoset elastomers; thermoplastic elastomers (TPEs) are excluded. Furthermore, data for synthetic rubber include the solids content of latices and the SBR content of the masterbatch. As such, the weight of carbon black and other fillers (such as clay and waxes), as well as rubber processing chemicals, is excluded.

 

Natural rubber figures include the dry rubber content of the latex. Although synthetic rubber supply and demand figures include latex SBR, carboxylated SBR and latex NBR, along with solid SBR and solid NBR, capacity numbers only include solid SBR and solid NBR. Consequently, several countries might seemingly have higher production of synthetic rubber than existing capacity would allow.

 

Tire consumption, net imports and production are provided in units for the historical years 1996, 2001 and 2006, with forecasts provided for 2011 and 2016.

 

Tire production and sales refer to tires used on automobiles, light trucks and vans, medium and heavy trucks, and medium and heavy buses, as well as specialty vehicles used on roadways such as fire trucks and ambulances. Tires for off-road vehicles (e.g., forklifts, agricultural vehicles, mining vehicles, airport tugs etc.) as well as bicycles and motorcycles are not included in the production or demand numbers and any rubber used to manufacture these products is considered non-tire rubber for the purposes of this report.

 

However, since many of these products are manufactured at the same facilities as tires for on-road vehicles they are included in the capacity figures. Tire sales include both the OEM (original equipment manufacturers) and replacement (or aftermarket) segments. Retread tires are excluded from tire production data.

 

All tire capacity numbers have been listed in units per day. When converting published annual plant capacity data into daily capacity format, an assumption is made that there are 340 working days per calendar year in all countries. For conversion from monthly capacity to daily capacity, it is assumed that there are 28 working days per calender month in all countries. In addition, one metric ton of tires is assumed to be equivalent to 85 tires in most cases. Appropriate adjustments were made for plants that primarily produce large heavy truck and bus tires or smaller specialty tires.

 

Tire rubber consumption includes rubber used in passenger car, light and heavy truck and bus tires, as well as for all applications (e.g., treads, sidewalls, inner tubes). Non-tire rubber demand refers to the volume of rubber used in industrial rubber products (such products as hoses, belts and mechanical goods), footwear and medical supplies, offroad vehicle, bicycle and motorcycle tires, among others. This study deals only with new rubber; reclaimed rubber is excluded.

 

Throughout the study, data are related to indicators in the tables. This is done for comparative purposes and to facilitate further analysis. Details in the tables may not add to totals due to independent rounding, and calculated ratios may reflect unrounded numbers. All estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and components of GDP are done in terms of constant purchasing power parity, using purchasing power parity GDP estimates obtained from the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), the World Bank, the US Central Intelligence Agency and selected other sources. That is, the GDP estimates for the year 2005 are based on gross domestic product data expressed in the individual countries¡¯ local currency, which are then converted to US dollars by valuing each country¡¯s output at US prices in the year 2005. This approach values the same physical output at a consistent price for all countries, thereby reducing the distorting influence of different price levels in the different countries. The alternative approach of using exchange rates to convert local currency GDP to US dollars will tend to overvalue the output of countries with high average price levels and undervalue the output of countries with low average price levels, because exchange rate conversions only partially reflect the relative prices for goods and services that are domestically consumed and invested. Furthermore, factors other than relative prices, such as demand and supply in currency markets, interest rates and capital flows, affect exchange rates.

 

For years other than 2005, the growth in inflation-adjusted GDP for a given country is based on historical and forecast growth rates of GDP, expressed in inflation-adjusted units of local currency. This approach ensures that the GDP series for any given country is an accurate index of changes in inflation-adjusted GDP for that country, but it implicitly assumes that the price structures across countries do not change from those of the base year. Therefore, caution should be used in comparing the relative GDP of countries in years other than the 2005 base. If the ratio of prices across two countries in a given year differs from the ratio of prices across those countries in 2005, the change in the relative sizes of those two economies as measured will not accurately reflect changes in output.

 

Macroeconomic and demographic indicators in this study were obtained from The Freedonia Group Consensus Forecasts dated June 2007. Motor vehicle indicators presented in this study were obtained from The Freedonia Group Consensus Forecasts dated July 2007. Historical data and forecasts for population are based on an average of population estimates from the US Bureau of the Census, the United Nations and the World Bank. GDP historical data are derived from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), from the OECD for its member countries, and from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for its member countries that are not part of the OECD. GDP estimates for other countries are based on information from the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and a variety of US State Department sources.

 

From: just-auto