Consumer confidence is at its highest level since November, but it doesn't seem like Americans are ready to invest in the second-largest purchase next to their home.

Analysts and automakers' executives expect April U.S. auto sales to be in line with March's 37 percent drop when the companies release their monthly results Friday.

According to J.D. Power and Associates, retail sales for the first 16 days in April were down 33 percent compared with the same month last year, but stable compared with March sales.

U.S. sales hit their low point in January, when automakers sold about 657,000 light vehicles. Sales improved to nearly 858,000 in March, but that was mainly due to expected seasonal buying patterns, not a significant indication that sales are rebounding from their lowest levels in 27 years.

The industry is on pace to sell fewer than 10 million cars in the U.S. in 2009, although the market is expected to improve in the second half of the year as the economy recovers. Automakers sold 13.2 million vehicles last year and 16.1 million in 2007.

"Industry sales are starting to show signs of stability, albeit at levels near 30-year lows," said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations for J.D. Power. "In spite of continued supply corrections, we remain optimistic that coming months will exhibit stability with a modest increase in the second half of the year."

That optimism is coupled with Tuesday's news that The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose far more than expected in April, jumping more than 12 points to 39.2.

"It's important to pay careful attention to consumer sentiment, their outlook will say much about when autos sales will improve," said George Pipas, top sales analyst for Ford Motor Co. ( F - news - people ) "I think we're still dealing with a pretty cautious consumer. It's not that evident that retail demand is all that much stronger than the last couple of months."

Ford is looking to capture a greater share of an albeit smaller market, Pipas said. The only major U.S. automaker operating without government assistance, Ford expects a slight uptick in April retail sales, thanks to strong sales of its new F-150 pickup and 2010 Ford Fusion, which now comes in a hybrid version. A 2010 Mustang also hits showrooms this month.

"We're on track to achieve another increase in retail share. April will make the sixth month out seven," he said. "I think it's encouraging to see that new products are the primary beneficiary."

Goldman Sachs ( GS - news - people ) analyst Patrick Archambault wrote in a report last week that General Motors Corp. ( GM - news - people ) and Chrysler LLC's restructuring moves will present an opening for Ford to capture market share.

"We see Ford as well-positioned to capitalize on a more than 50 percent decline in Chrysler share (even granting a successful Fiat ( FIA - news - people ) alliance), and the pruning of GM's product portfolio," he wrote.

Ford also introduced a payment protection program at the end of March that makes a customer's car payments for 12 months after a loss of income. Pipas said just having the program in place has helped dealers close deals with tentative buyers.

"There are a lot of people shopping for cars but they won't buy a car because they are uncertain about their situation," Pipas said. "They're closing sales because the plan provides security in the event that one of the worse things happens to them."

GM - which leads Ford in market share - began offering a similar payment protection plan in April. But the company, which released details of a new restructuring plan Monday that cuts dealerships, workers, and plants, may be taking a hit as consumers shy away from a company that could potentially file for bankruptcy by June.

GM CEO Fritz Henderson said Monday that he was "reasonably encouraged" by the response to its Consumer Confidence plan, but he did not speculate on April sales. GM sales fell 45 percent last month, the biggest drop among major automakers. Other GM executives have said they expect a slight improvement from March.

Chrysler has until Thursday to satisfy the U.S. government with its restructuring and secure another $6 billion in aid needed to keep it alive. Its sales were down 39 percent in March, but Chrysler executives were optimistic because the Auburn Hills, Mich., company sold more than 100,000 vehicles for the first time since last fall.

In an e-mail to employees Wednesday, Chrysler Chief Executive Officer Bob Nardelli said that sales volumes are "on par with" current market levels.

"In these difficult conditions our dealers are doing a terrific job, and continue to move product at retail," he wrote in the e-mail obtained by The Associated Press. "This is great news considering all the negative news in our industry and continued economic weakness."