Auto analysts and bankruptcy lawyers say the deadline set out in the federal bailout of the automakers is too ambitious to get bondholders on board in just a few more weeks. They say GM in particular needs an extension to avoid being forced into bankruptcy if it can't show progress on its assignment to cut $27.5 billion of unsecured debt down to about $9.2 billion by the end of March.

The concern centers around GM because the public company has many junk bonds and unsecured creditors, said Judy O'Neill, partner with Foley & Lardner LLP's Detroit office and an expert on Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Being private, the majority of Chrysler's bondholders are secured, said spokeswoman Chrysler Shawn Morgan. She said Chrysler doesn't need and will not seek a delay in the timing set forth by the U.S. Treasury Department.

The loan agreements between the automakers and the Treasury call for the reduction of unsecured public debt by not less than two-thirds through a bond exchange, but don't provide guidance on secured bondholders.

GM won't have final concessions in place from its bondholders and unions by the time it submits a restructuring plan Feb. 17. It will include additional plant closings, salaried pay cuts and more than 5,000 salaried job cuts.

'Certifying our plan and our progress resides with the presidential designee and we're ready to work with that person through every step of the process,' GM spokesman Greg Martin said.

President Barack Obama may name his auto team as early as Thursday, with private-equity figure Steven Rattner, a partner at the Quadrangle Group in New York, the leading candidate to be auto czar. His team is expected to include auto analyst Stephen Girsky of private equity firm Centerbridge Industrial Partners.

March 31 would 'be very challenging to effect a bond exchange if the bondholders do not know what the company is going to look like, even over the short term,' said Oline of Fitch Ratings.

That is the crux of the problem, said Durc Savini, managing director of Miller Buckfire & Co. LLC, a restructuring firm in New York.

Before a party is willing to convert debt to equity and fall to the end of the line to get paid, it wants to know the value of the equity it is getting. That means it wants to see a business plan for the restructured company, including deals with the union and other stakeholders. Without all that, it's hard to get a commitment from bondholders, Savini said.

Even under Chapter 11 reorganization, the goal is to get commitments representing two-thirds of the total amount of debt and half the total number of bondholders to agree to an equity swap, then use the court to impose the same terms ton the final third. And it takes time. Supplier Dana Corp., Savini notes, needed two years to resolve similar issues and had to turn to the courts.

Outside of bankruptcy, it is better to have about 90 percent compliance, Savini said.

That is hard to get, O'Neill said, because there is reluctance by many bondholders. Adding to the difficulty, it can be hard to locate all the unsecured bondholders, down to people with bonds in their 401(k) retirement accounts. All unsecured creditors have to be treated equally, which gives junk bondholders clout.

In a case like GM, 'the compromises needed are going to be hard to obtain without the force of law,' Savini said. 'Right now all you have is moral suasion applied by Congress through a presidential designee.'

The loan agreements say the car companies must show 'commencement of an exchange offer to implement a bond exchange' by March 31.

Chrysler's dealers and suppliers are contributing to restructuring efforts and the focus this week is on settling issues with bondholders and the UAW, she said.

Last month, Stephen Feinberg, founder of Cerberus Capital Management LP, the parent of Chrysler and part owner of GMAC LLC, met with staffers from the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee.

GM's Wagoner is working to smooth the reception of its plan with a series of meetings in Washington today, including one with the new chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif.

And the automaker is banking on the fact the loan agreements only require 'commencement' of the exchange and not completion.

'So you have time. It's not like everything is going to be done and buttoned up,' GM Chief Operating Officer Fritz Henderson said to reporters in January. 'But we have to have preliminary plans by that time.'