The potential failure of one ormore of the three U.S.-based automakers would cut up to 2.5million jobs in the first year as production ground to a haltthroughout the industry, according to an auto industryconsultant group on Wednesday.



The impact on carmakers, suppliers and the operations oftransplant automakers in the United States would reducepersonal income by more than $125 billion in the first year,the Center for Automotive Research said in a study.



U.S. automakers already had been struggling amid athree-year domestic downturn in auto sales before the financialcrisis increasing investor concerns that the companies wouldnot be able to hold out until the market recovers.



General Motors Corp and Cerberus Capital Management have been in talks about a potential merger of GM andCerberus-owned Chrysler. Ford Motor Co is thought to bein better shape than its rivals, but also has been burningthrough cash at a swift rate.



The center studied the potential impact if all three U.S.automakers failed, or if one or more failed, and said eitherscenario is possible, and 'indeed one or the other is probable,within the next 12 months.'



The study was not commissioned by a third partyorganization or a company, said Ann Arbor, Michigan-based CAR.However, the center has worked with automakers and auto partssuppliers on various projects.



The center expected 'short-term shocks' for all automakers,followed by gradual increases in domestic production byinternational automakers and surviving Detroit automakers and a'high likelihood of many U.S. supplier company insolvencies.'



After the first-year impact of job losses, a rebound indomestic production at the surviving Detroit-based automakersand at the transplant automakers would pare those job losses toabout 1 million by 2011, the center found.



The study did not take into account the impact on theinterdependent Canada or Mexico auto industries that rely onU.S.-produced parts and components.