The two automakers, as well as Ford Motor Co., will continue to bleed jobs under the status quo, with the eventual result that one of them -- likely Chrysler -- would declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy or be sold piecemeal, he said. Both of those scenarios would be 'very expensive for the government and the economy,' Anderson said. The alternatives are so bad, it almost forces a merger, he said. Cerberus Capital Management LP, Chrysler's majority owner, is 'not going to sit around and lose money for the next five years,' Anderson said. 'They will consider auction and Chapter 11.' 'There is no scenario where GM and Chrysler avoid significant reductions in employment -- none,' Anderson said. A tie-up with GM still would result in the closure of about 10 assembly plants, of which three, affecting 8,000 to 10,000 hourly workers, are likely to be in Michigan. The losses in the white-collar ranks, mainly technical and design jobs, would be in the 10,000 to 15,000 range in the state over a one- to two-year period. Huge job losses would also come from the supplier and dealer ranks and the job losses will be in all 50 states, he said. 'GM and Chrysler have more dealers than they can support already,' Anderson said. A merger would accelerate a reduction and put more of a timeline on it. The most visible sign of change: small and midsize towns will see the closure of a dealer. The era of providing products at a loss to maintain market share and keep plants humming at capacity has come to an end, Anderson said. '2008 marks the year when it became apparent to everyone that it's not possible. The days of zero-percent financing on a vehicle that was sold at a loss are over.' Additionally, he said, a merger will trigger a wave of consolidation throughout the industry, including other automakers and the supply chain. Some government financing or aid is likely and would have made sense even before these extraordinary times that have spawned such intervention, Anderson said. Otherwise, government faces the loss of tax revenue from laid-off employees and a drop in property taxes from closed operations. Asked to put a figure on how much the auto industry might expect, Anderson suggested 5 percent of the $7 billion earmarked for generic bailout. You can reach Alisa Priddle at (313) 222 -- 2504 or apriddledteom.