This is a bad movie that gets worse with each new showing. Contract concessions reached, assets sold, jobs cut, plants closed, brands jettisoned, credit downgraded, cash burned, market share ceded, billions lost, dealers sacrificed, captive finance companies compromised -- and what's left? Essentially, this: Purely automotive companies that are susceptible to the merciless business cycle and its ugly twin, gyrating consumer confidence. And, second, an industry and its home state sharing a fifth year of their own recession and the increasing likelihood -- depending on the desperate moves to reverse a global economic slide -- that Delphi Corp.'s 3-year-old bankruptcy won't be this town's biggest or its last. Cash is adequate -- for nowWonderful. S&P says GM and Ford have 'adequate liquidity' to weather the remainder of this year, which is scant comfort considering that we're almost to mid-October. Next year will pose a 'serious challenge' because of the rapidly deteriorating conditions, an observation echoed by a similarly dire assessment from J.D. Power and a Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicting recession for the second half of this year and the first three months of next. Officially, bankruptcy is not an option for Detroit's automakers. But the brutal facts are that the decision to file or not to file isn't so much made by management and boards of directors as it is driven by circumstances they often cannot control. And in the case of credit-poor auto companies, those circumstances are dictated fundamentally by a single four-letter word -- cash. Gimme Credit, an independent ratings agency, says Ford has 'nine to 12 quarters of liquidity.' Citigroup Global Markets estimates Ford would end next year with an 'adequate' cash surplus of $5.7 billion. But GM, which says it needs between $11 billion and $14 billion in cash to run its business, would end next year with $998 million, Citigroup says, 'very thin even with (a) $5 billion asset sale execution.' Not much room for error, that, in a fluid economic environment that seems to change regularly and influences consumer confidence with each trading day. Which helps explain why GM's shares are tanking to historic lows amid a punishing market sell-off and predictions of 'collapse' in the global auto market. Bankruptcy talk is inevitable, if unnerving, and Detroit executives would be wise to acknowledge the chatter and answer it instead of let it run amok. Bankruptcy advocates argue the cold business merits: GM, Ford and, presumably, Chrysler LLC could use the courts to radically restructure their U.S. operations even more than they already have. Wages, benefits and work rules in union contracts would be streamlined; brands could be killed and dealer networks rationalized; supplier contracts could be renegotiated and the network of parts makers winnowed. Real people would pay priceAnd if one goes into bankruptcy, the current thinking atop the automakers goes, the others would be forced to follow. Why? Because no matter how much cash the others may have in the bank, they cannot compete effectively with a domestic rival whose cost structure mirrors industry leaders Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. The next president and the next Congress would be faced with the likely call, considering the past few weeks, for some form of national intervention to 'save' the Detroit automakers, a politically dicey proposition. The economic ramifications of bankruptcy -- not necessarily inevitable -- are deadly serious for the Midwest and American industrial independence. The costs, not counting the high-priced lawyers and bankers, would be enormous. Employees and communities could see operations downscaled, jobs eliminated and facilities closed. Dealers could see their franchises combined or dropped. Governments could lose tax revenue from fewer and -- potentially -- lower-paying jobs. Retirees could lose their company health care benefits, usually among the first casualties in bankruptcy. The United Auto Workers, whose 70-year-old promise of delivering good wages and benefits is a core institutional principle, would be fatally compromised by bankruptcy and battles with hard-nosed creditors who can't spell 'solidarity,' much less care what it means. None of it is encouraging, and none of it should be cheered. In almost every case, these are real communities and real people with families, homes and kids to send to college, not mostly out-dated caricatures on a page. And in almost every case, the predicament is not their fault -- even though they could be forced to pay the price. Daniel Howes' column runs Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays. He can be reached at (313) 222-2106 or [email protected]. Catch him Fridays with Paul W. Smith on 760-WJR.