But in the short term, Toyota is struggling for visibility in a downturn that has taken everyone by surprise. The Japanese automaker no longer expects to see a turnaround this year and Lentz isn't certain it will take place next year, either, given the severity of the housing crisis. For the rest of 2008, he said he expects the market to trundle along at a pace slightly below last month's annualized selling rate of 13.7 million cars and trucks. 'Our baseline going in, is that 2009 will be very similar to 2008' or slightly more than 14 million units, he said. That compares with 16.1 million cars and trucks sold last year, and sales above 17 million earlier in the decade. While many Detroit auto executives -- including Chrysler LLC President Jim Press, a former head of Toyota Motor Sales USA -- blame the credit crunch, Lentz said the housing crisis was the main factor behind a rare drop in sales at Toyota. They are down 7.8 percent this year, less than the overall market's 11.2 percent decline. 'For us, it's more the impact that housing has had on wealth,' he said. California and Florida, two of the states hardest hit by the housing crisis, represent 20 percent of overall U.S. auto sales -- but 30 percent of Toyota's. 'If you look at the luxury end, in California, one-third of buyers finance their luxury vehicle purchase with home-equity loans. That has all just about stopped,' Lentz said. Raul Vazquez, CEO of Focus Inc., a marketing agency in Tampa, Fla., said many people viewed the rising equity in their homes as income during the boom. 'Now that income isn't there anymore,' he said. 'Places like Florida and California, where you had high appreciation, are the areas that are getting hardest hit because it's where the mortgage industry was most aggressive,' Vazquez said. The housing crisis also slashed demand for large pickups, a crucial segment for Toyota, which rolled out a new, full-size Tundra pickup in 2007. This year, in the most dramatic pullback in its 50-year history in the United States, Toyota halted output of full-size pickups and SUVs at two U.S. plants for three months starting in August to reduce inventories. It also shed hundreds of temporary workers. Tundra inventories have subsided from their peak in April when dealers had 150 days' supplies of trucks, to 70 days, Lentz said. 'We will be down to 45 days by year-end.' He expects demand for large pickups to recover from the current lows because there is no alternative for customers seeking a hard-working vehicle with towing and other capabilities who make up about 40 percent of the market, or for self-styled urban cowboys, who account for close to a third. But a third category of customers, people who use pickups much as they would a large SUV, for general transport, may not return to the segment, he said. That is likely to affect the mix of trucks that will be built and sold, leading to a reduction in four-door, or crew cab trucks. In this difficult market, the decline in oil and gas prices comes as welcome relief, Lentz said. But he said it was too early to tell if American consumers will shift back to their old buying patterns. 'It's difficult to say,' he said. Early September sales are tracking slightly below August levels, he said, in what may be a small backlash to last month's incentive-fueled deals. You can reach Christine Tierney at (313) 222-1463 or [email protected].